Aluminum: 2015 or spring day

Since 2008, aluminum has been in a downward trend. Winter in several years, the supply and demand structure of the global aluminum market quietly changed. Overall, in 2014 the first time in the global aluminum supply gap in 2015 will usher in the spring.

A quarter of primary aluminum strong excess pressure to suppress the London Metal Exchange aluminum $ 1,700 / ton, the domestic primary aluminum spot market prices fell 12,500 yuan / ton low. This forced Chinese smelters sharply cut 2 million tons, the West has gradually cut the smelter. Domestic market makes cuts significantly reduce the excess pressure in the second half as the US economic recovery momentum increases, the London Metal Exchange aluminum since March lows by more than 20%.

Supply: the expected tight supply of bauxite, but the problem is not prominent. Indonesia's export restrictions by the Ebola virus in Africa and the impact of events in bauxite, the global and Chinese bauxite and alumina supply slightly nervous. Due to market speculation, the 2015 Chinese bauxite and alumina and other raw materials is expected to rise 5-10%.

For the Chinese market, from a dynamic point of view, even without considering the growth of imports of alumina, bauxite supply is estimated will not be too nervous in early 2016. The reason is that China reserves of nearly 30 million tons of bauxite in 2013, but in recent years, China's import demand for bauxite scale of 35 million tons -4000.

Therefore, even if there have been incidents in Indonesia and Africa, Ebola virus, in 2014 China will still easily get 35 million tons of bauxite from the international market, with Brazil, Malaysia, India and other places more abundant supply of bauxite, Russia's supply of raw materials will increase, expected annual Mailyard futures, in 2015 China will import about 40 million tons of bauxite.

The demand side: Considering the impact of China's economic growth fell, expects global aluminum demand growth in 2015 was 5.0 percent, slower than in 2014. As China reforms and economic restructuring, the real estate market is shrinking, economic growth will slow down in 2015 by the Chinese aluminum demand growth of 9% in 2014 down to 7.7%. Aluminum demand outside China is expected to grow 2.8%.